Despite war, rising gas prices, sagging economies, supply chain issues and everything else that has consumers feeling their wallet pinched, global bank Goldman Sachs predicts good times ahead for the music business. Not only that, it predicts that it will grow to epic proportions by 2030.
In its highly informative Music In The Air report, the banking giant thinks that the total global music revenue will jump to $131 billion by 2030. Not only that, it predicts that the global streaming revenue will grow from around $18 billion today to more than $37 billion (yep, more than double) by the end of the decade.
The report breaks the music business down into 3 areas – Live Music ($38 billion), publishing ($12.5 billion) and recorded music ($80 billion).
It also points out that millennials and Gen-Zs are are now spending about $163 per year on streaming, while age 13 to 17 are spending about $80 per year. The predictions are that this revenue will grow thanks to increased prices from the streaming services and more users because of emerging markets.
Glasses Might Be Rose Colored
If you’re a music executive you have to be smiling when reading this report, but one has to wonder if maybe Goldman is pumping the numbers up a bit to make its investments in music publishing and tech look good on company pitch decks.
The IFPI has already indicated that the number of users in developed countries is flattening, and the revenue growth in emerging markets is slowing as well. Yes, there’s still room for more growth but the days of single digit increases instead of 25 and 30% are probably right around the corner.
That said, if the major music distributors like Spotify and Apple Music raise their prices from the $9.99 level that it’s been since streaming began, that would provide an instant boost in revenue and get closer to the forecast. We’ve seen this already starting to happen in different tiers like family plans.
Many thought that the prediction by Goldman Sachs of $28 billion in streaming revenue by 2030 was a bit of a reach back in 2017 when its last report was published. Although everyone in the music business would be happy to see it, the company’s current prediction seems a bit of a fantasy.